Prognozy INE PAN
Forecast of INE PAN

Summary/Abstract: In the next four quarters, a further decline of GDP growth is expected, down to 1.8% at the end of 2013. The decrease is associated with the projected second wave of the crisis in Poland, which, according to INE PAN, will have a much more noticeable impact on the Polish economy than the first wave. The outlook for the labor market is rather pessimistic. A gradual increase in unemployment is expected, accompanied by a slight (less than 2%) increase in wages. A moderate decline of inflation rate is projected in the forthcoming quarters, down to around 3.2% at the end of the first half of 2013. A drop in inflation rate and deteriorating outlook for economic growth will lead to loosening of monetary policy and a cut in interest rates by 25 basis points in the last quarter of 2012.

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