Prognozy INE PAN: Słaba koniunktura przy zwiększającym się bezrobociu
Forecasts of INE PAN: Economic Slowdown and Increasing Unemployment

Summary/Abstract: In the current year we will observe slow recovery in Polish economy. The GDP growth rate will increase slightly from 1,1% in the first quarter to 1,9% in the fourth quarter. Decline in gross fixed capital formation will be continued and will be even bigger than observed in the second half of the previous year. The impact of external trade on real growth of GDP will be positive throughout the current year. The labour market will continue to deteriorate and rate of unemployment will increase significantly. At the end of the year the registered unemployment rate will amount to 14,2% and by LFS to 11,0%. Due to the low economic growth, inflation rate should fall steadily, up to 1,6% at the end of the current year. Interest rate should be decreased twice this year: once in I quarter and once in the II quarter (up to 3%).

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