Forecasting Threats to State Security in Theory and in Practice. Toolbox for the Analyst
Forecasting Threats to State Security in Theory and in Practice. Toolbox for the Analyst

Summary/Abstract: The article is devoted to the issue of forecasting threats to state security. The starting point for the author’s considerations is the thesis on the development of forecasting methodology because of close links between scientific methods developed by theoreticians and their development in practice in institutions responsible for state security, primarily in secret services. The author emphasises the importance of the methodological aspects of forecasting, recalling Richard Pipes’ statement that science is the method, not the content. Pointing to the American school of intelligence analysis as an example, the author pays particular attention to the need for close links between the development of scientific methodology and forecasting as the subject of practical activity. Such a relationship is the basis for both the development of science and the strengthening of state security by improving the processes of recognising and forecasting threats, which must be based on scientific methods. This is particularly important in view of the dynamic development of information processing technology, especially in the context of the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in practice. The result of the author’s considerations is a proposal to create a specific toolbox for analysts dealing with forecasting threats to state security, the content of which must be consistently developed and improved. In the research which resulted in the presented article, systems analysis was used

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