Prognozowanie zagrożeń terrorystycznych jako element systemu antyterrorystycznego
Forecasting terrorist threats as an element of the anti-terrorist system

Summary/Abstract: The article is devoted to the problem of forecasting terrorist threats and its role in the state’s anti-terrorist system. The aim of the article is to present the methodology of forecasting terrorist threats at three levels: strategic, operational and tactical. The text presents basic methods, techniques and tools used in threats forecasting. The main thesis of the article is the statement that a properly prepared forecast allows to determine with a high degree of probability the possibility of a terrorist threat, however, in such a case we are always dealing with the assessment of such a possibility, and not with cognitive certainty. System analysis was used as the basic research method.

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