Przegląd sytuacji międzynarodowej: aspekty globalne i regionalne
An overview of the international situation: Global and regional aspects

Summary/Abstract: The Russian aggression against Ukraine, which in the Kremlin’s mind was supposed to be nothing but a brief “special military operation”, quickly turned out to be a protracted regular war between the nuclear power and its not-so-little neighbour. In the course of 2022, a “local war” has become a major international event and could be regarded as a global La Fontaine’s carafe, i.e. a prism through which one could see the different colours (interest and emotions) of the world society. The war itself showed that Putin’s calculations regarding Ukraine were a huge illusion, that Russia’s military competence was lacking, and that its strategic culture was brutal (and based on the notion that sheer force should prevail). War crimes and crimes against humanity Russia has committed shocked many. Moscow was not able to reach the objectives Putin outlined in his speech on 24 February. Nuclear blackmail he put on the table at the very beginning has not worked so far, although this option cannot be totally excluded if the events get seriously bad for Russia. Ukraine, to the contrary, despite huge imbalance to its disadvantage (1:10), resisted the aggression surprisingly well. At the beginning of the Russian invasion it lost however part of its territory (some 15%) which can be difficult to regain. Both sides have suffered enormous losses. Ukraine has been able to resist aggression due to both modern and smart defence and unexpectedly large western support. Under American leadership, the West has shown resolve and readiness to face the Russian threat and to deliver great amounts of weaponry and intelligence needed to ensure Ukrainian survival. Alas, the rest of the world has either been hesitating, trying to do some business out of the war, or showing understanding and even sympathy to the Russian cause. In February 2023, the war has still been stagnating in a stalemate similar to the I World War frontlines.

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