Wystarczająco potężne, by odstraszyć? Ocena rozbudowy Sił Zbrojnych RP z perspektywy geostrategicznej
Powerful enough to deter? Assessment of the expansion of the Polish Armed Forces from a geostrategic perspective

Summary/Abstract: The main purpose of the article is to assess to what extent the plannedexpansion of the Polish Armed Forces will allow Poland to acquire the ability to mil-itarily deter the Russian Federation. The conducted research aimed to obtain answersto two questions fundamental to Poland’s military security. Firstly, what are the basicconditions for effectively deterring the Russian Federation from open aggressionagainst Poland? Secondly, to what extent the planned expansion of the Polish ArmedForces to 300,000 soldiers, is able to ensure Poland’s ability to deter Russia against full-scale or limited aggression? The article uses research methods appropriate to the po-litical science in particular the literature review and the critical analysis of sources.Poland’s military security is analysed in the broader context of geostrategic conditionsand taking into account the new escalation ladder that has emerged in the hybrid coldwar between Russia and NATO. Then, the expansion of the Polish Armed Forces wasassessed from the perspective of Poland’s ability to militarily deter the Russian Feder-ation. Three basic conditions for effectively deterring Russia against open aggressionhave been identified, i.e. having armed forces with appropriate potential, having“anti-surprise” capabilities, as well as NATO’s pursuit of a credible deterrence policy.However, some modernization plans and the idea of establishing a sixth division are athigh risk of failure due to financial and personnel limitations. Moreover, the progres-sive degradation of personnel reserves in the event of mobilization seriously weakensthe ability to deter full-scale aggression. There is a risk that, despite significant finan-cial outlays, the development of the Polish Armed Forces will not lead to buildingthe ability to deter the Russian Federation from open aggression.

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