Wpływ wojny rosyjsko-ukraińskiej na bazę ekonomiczną ubezpieczenia społecznego w Polsce
Consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war for the economic base of social insurance in Poland

Summary/Abstract: The aim of the article is to contribute to the issue of forecasting the economic impact of the settlement ofUkrainian refugees in Poland on the social insurance economic base. The immigration wave study estab-lished the state of registered immigration in Poland as of 8 August 2022 which amounted to 1.3 millionUkrainians. The main area of research presented in this article is the recognition of changes in the potentialof the labour factor in the economic base of the Polish social security system. The results of the projectionsof population change in Poland and the projections of the ratio of the post-working age population to theworking age population without and with Ukrainians in three variants and scenarios are presented. Thestudy shows that population changes in Poland with war refugees from Ukraine will slightly alter the levelof the demographic replacement rate for the baseline scenario. However, under the most negative scenarioin Ukraine, there will be a noticeable improvement in the demographic dependency ratio. An increase inthe demographic burden will create growing problems for the financing of pension systems in Poland aswell as in Europe as a whole.

• Details
• Contents