Poziom wyszczepienia przeciw COVID-19 a nadmiarowe zgony w ujęciu regionalnym w Polsce
The rate of vaccination against COVID-19 and the number of excess deaths by region in Poland

Summary/Abstract: Scientific studies prove the effectiveness of universal vaccination in fighting viral diseases or mitigating their effects. The aim of the study discussed in this article is to assess the relationship between the rate of vaccination of the Polish population against COVID-19 and the number of excess deaths by region. The key predictors used in the study were the rate of full vaccination against COVID-19 for regions (NUTS 2), sub-regions (NUTS 3) and powiats at the end of 2021, and the number of excess deaths per 100,000 people in the second half of 2021 and the first half of 2022, i.e. during the fourth and fifth waves of the pandemic. The research was based on Statistics Poland and e-Health Centre data. Excess deaths were estimated using the analysis of time series. The calculations were performed using the number of deaths by age and sex of the deceased on a weekly basis for NUTS 2 and NUTS 3, and on a half-year basis for powiats. The results of the performed analyses indicate that there is a moderately strong association between the anti-COVID-19 vaccination rate at the end of 2021 and the number of excess deaths in the period between the beginning of July 2021 and the end of June 2022. We also observed significant differences between regions as far as their excess death rates between the beginning of July 2021 and the end of June 2022, and their anti-COVID-19 vaccination rates at the end of 2021 are considered.

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