Prognozy konwergencji gospodarczej województw Polski do roku 2020
Economic convergence forecasts for Polish regions to the year 2020

Summary/Abstract: Numerous studies indicate that economic divergence occurs among regions of Poland (NUTS 2 units – voivodeships), which means increasing differences in the economic development level within country. The carrying out of cohesion policy, from 2004, whose primary objective is to reduce regional disproportions, has not reversed the trend of divergence among the voivodeships so far. A question arises whether convergence among Poland’s regions is possible at all? In order to answer that question, the article makes a simulation of the regions’ GDP per capita growth rates up to 2020 in several variants. The results indicate that if the regions’ development is assumed to follow historical trends convergence will not be achieved. A similarly pessimistic conclusion accompanies analyses performed based on the results of models assuming the use of EU resources.

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