Моментум и изменение на броя и възрастовата структура на населението в България (1947-2009 г.)
The momentum of population in Bulgaria and changes in its size and age structure (1947-2009)

Summary/Abstract: Some contemporary theoretical conceptions for the population growth potential, known as „momentum“, are discussed. They are used to study the changes in the size and structure of population in Bulgaria, differentiated by sex and age, in the period 1947-2009. The momentum of population in Bulgaria has decreased steadily since the middle of the last century. It was positive and showed a maximum potential for a population increase of 27% in 1950 and negative, indicating a potential reduction of over 20% in 2009. Decomposition of the momentum in stable and unstable components indicates a strong destabilization of the age structure and a very unfavourable reproduction schedule since the early 1990s. Calculation of the age-specific momentums has indicated specific trends in some age groups. Study of the trends in total and age-specific momentums in the context of demographic transition brings additional light on the mechanism of population ageing of Bulgarian population.

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