Modele obliczeniowe równowagi ogólnej – ramy teoretyczne, zastosowanie przy ocenie skutków liberalizacji handlu
Computable General Equilibrium Models – theoretical frameworks and their use in assessing the impact of trade liberalization

Summary/Abstract: Economists utilize various analytical tools in modeling implications of full and partial trade liberalization for global economy and certain national markets. CGEM’s assessments diverge to a large extent, for instance, in terms of potential impact of full trade liberalization on world welfare and poverty. Undoubtedly, their popularity is determined by simplified assumptions and conclusions. Furthermore, more and more data are available. However, the question remains as to the objectivity of formulated projections. Recent experiments tend to be more pessimistic than the previous one, broadening the category of potential losers from full trade liberalization within the group of developing and less developed countries. When assessing potential impacts of full trade liberalization in the 90s, CGE modeling used to present relatively optimistic landscape of global economy through such effects as increase in welfare or reduction of poverty. Since 2000, when Doha Development Round was initiated, challenged by high expectations of developing world, modest progress and disappointing results of negotiations have threatened the further multilateralization of global trade regime, leading to the stimulation of second wave of regionalism – a process directly associated with the rapid expansion of regional trade agreements, especially bilateral one. R.E. Baldwin shed some light on political motivations of many such initiatives, while putting into the question the utility value of frequent ex ante utilization of CGEM.

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