Цената на работната сила в България през ХХ век и „дългите вълни“ на Кондратиев
The Price of the Manpower in Bulgaria during XX Century and Kondratiev Waves

Summary/Abstract: In this article the results from the third part of the survey of the cyclic recurrence of the socio-economic development of Bulgaria during XX century are presented. The long waves in the dynamics of the ordinary worker wage are the object of the article. The working hypothesis is that the period of the state capitalism in Bulgaria (since the late forties to the late eighties of XX centuries) is one of Kondratiev waves. Own modification of the Bayesian spectrum analysis is used for the detection of the waves. This modification is applied on data about base index-numbers of the ordinary worker wage for the period 1896–1989. The results reveal that 53 years Kondratiev wave is presented. Its bottom is in the middle sixties and its top is in the late eighties and early nineties. There is phase shift of the dynamics of the ordinary worker wage compared to the indicators discussed in the first two parts of the survey – the extraction of copper ore and the extraction of coals. There is phase shift, even opposition, compared to the two variants of the fourth wave of the world economy.

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