Forecast accuracy and similarities in the development of mean transaction prices on Polish residential markets
Forecast accuracy and similarities in the development of mean transaction prices on Polish residential markets

Summary/Abstract: This article presents the results of a study concerning the forecasting of mean transaction prices per 1 m2 in eight residential markets in Poland. The first research problem was an attempt to study the dependencies between the similarity of price development between these markets and the values of the errors of price forecasts that were constructed based on this similarity. The analysis showed a lack of a negative linear relationship. This means that a greater similarity in price development in different markets did not allow for the construction of forecasts with a smaller error. The second research problem was a construction of global mean price forecasts. The results showed that the proposed method of constructing global forecasts was, compared to the traditional one, better in the case of some markets, and worse for others.

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