Šiaulių apskrities bendrojo vidaus produkto prognozės
Šiauliai County Gross Domestic Product Forecasts

Summary/Abstract: The aim of the research – to base forecasts of Šiauliai county gross domestic product changes up 2025. For the justification the predictive artificial neurons network method was used. The data were processed using software NEUROINTELLIGENCE. The brief analysis of Šiauliai county GDP changes from 1998 to 2004 was carried out. To calculate the forecasts the presumptive main GDP indicators assumptions were taken: Personal consumption expenses, the Government consumption expenses, the Total domestic investments, exports of goods and services, imports of goods and services. Šiauliai county GDP indicators‘ assumptions are based on the formed economy development tendencies and economic development assumptions, of which the most important are the following – Lithuania will carry out economy policy, which was approved in the communiqué on the accession of Lithuania to ERM II (Exchange Rate Mechanism – the EU requirement to evaluate transitional phase of country‘s preparation for membership in the Euro zone), i.e. stable fiscal policy, credit increase restriction, active labour market policy aimed to increase employment and labour market flexibility and favourable for economic development investment and business inducement policy. It was estimated that Šiauliai county gross domestic product will reach about 9664,7 Litas, and the GDP will increase up to 13500,1 m Litas in 2025. During this period in the Šiauliai county as well as in the whole Lithuania the rapid economic development will take place which already continues from the beginning of 2001. The three scenarios were prepared which provided possible Šiauliai county gross domestic product and its main indicators’ changes intervals. The previous main GDP indicators vertical and horizontal changes tendencies from 1995 to 2004, and the gathered data during the interviews, the carried out forecast of the Department of Statistics of the Republic of Lithuania, Finance Ministry of the Republic of Lithuania, and other institutions enabled to state that the most optimistic Šiauliai county gross domestic product forecasts scenario is the closest one to reality.

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