Predvidljivost “puta” u zločin genocida
Predictability of the "road" to genocide crime

Summary/Abstract: Numerous theories are presented by which we want to explain the predictability of the crime, concluding that none of them gives complete answer to the etiology of severe crimes. That is why the genocide researchers are invited to focus more to the research of the genocide prediction in order to make its prevention planning in a more valuable way. Original approach of interdisciplinary analysis is offered and it refers to the complete analysis of historical periods marked by bloody conflicts. As a sample for the testing of the model the author takes historical periods in which authoritative leaders ruled: Julius Cesar, Napoleon Bonaparte, Adolf Hitler and Slobodan Milosevic who succeeded to lead their citizens into bloodshed wars and into severe crimes. These are leaders whose rule transformed democracy (as it was) into despotism. Inviting to experimental researches in social psychology, the main conclusion was given: if a leader starts ruling in authoritative way, he won`t lack the ˝material˝ to move together on ˝the way˝ to crimes. The prevention of genocide crime would consist in cutting off the authoritative style in state leading. International community should have specialized forces able to indentify the process of the transformation of democracy into despotism in good time, the process going on under authoritative leadership, and to prevent it.

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