Niepewność w prognozowaniu dochodów emerytalnych
Uncertainty of forecasting retirement incomes

Summary/Abstract: The aim of the paper is the indication and characteristics of the most important conditions determining uncertainty of forecasting retirement incomes. In the paper the literature studies, descriptive and explanation methods have been used. The start points for the undertaken considerations are two theories: life cycle model and permanent-income hypothesis. The model of pension system and the topic of rational and adaptive expectations have been emphasized. The main conclusion drawn from the considerations is that the uncertainty of retirement incomes forecasts is significant and decreases the reliability of such forecasts and thus determines their function and utility.

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