Izlazne ankete: iskustva u svijetu i u Hrvatskoj
Exit Polls: International and Croatian Experience

Summary/Abstract: The paper consists of two main parts. The first comprises a short presentation of the development of exit polls worldwide as well as a description of the most common methodological approaches and prognostic validity of this type of research. The second part analyses the validity of exit polls conducted to date in Croatia and evaluates them from the point of view of statistical prediction of election results as well as predicting the political outcome of the election. It is concluded that the results of previous exit polls, although relatively satisfactory in a statistical sense, mostly contained certain biases which, in close election races, resulted in a mistaken prognosis of the order of the leading electoral competitors. In addition, in all the research regarding election situations, the exit poll data were inadequately interpreted in public presentations because in projections of election results the important methodological circumstances that could influence their prognostic value were not taken into consideration.

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