Studij slučaja: Analiza metodologije izlaznih anketa agencije Puls
Case Study: Analysis of the Puls Agency Exit Poll Methodology

Summary/Abstract: In an attempt to improve exit polls in Croatia, a detailed analysis was carried out of the exit poll methodology used by the agency Puls in the last few elections. The results of the analysis showed that the main biases of the applied methodological approaches were related to the coverage of potential respondents, mostly due to survey non-response, biased sampling procedures and, consequently to inefficient statistical correction procedures aimed at reducing such research biases. In addition to a more cautious interpretation and public presentation of results, it would be best in the future to improve the existing and develop some new methodological solutions, especially predictive models of election outcomes in which the exit polls data would be one of its constituent elements.

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