Causality in distribution between European stock markets and commodity prices: using independence test based on the empirical copula
Causality in distribution between European stock markets and commodity prices: using independence test based on the empirical copula

Summary/Abstract: The aim of the paper is to investigate dynamic linkages between the main European stock markets and two commodity prices: crude oil and gold. For the empirical analysis we use daily data from the period January 2, 1998 to June 30, 2014. To investigate Granger causality a nonparametric test based on the empirical copula is used, which was proposed by Christian Genest and Bruno Rémillard in 2004. The analysis is conducted in rolling windows. There are three main findings of the study. First, relations between commodity prices and stock markets are not stable in time. Second, commodity prices do not Granger cause the European stock market indexes. Third, only the price of gold depends on past values of stock market indexes for almost all sub-periods.

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