Future of NATO-Ukraine Relations. Non-Bloc Status, Partnership or Membership?
Future of NATO-Ukraine Relations. Non-Bloc Status, Partnership or Membership?

Summary/Abstract: Over the past two decades, various aspects of the possible Ukrainian NATO membership have been analysed. However, today’s situation is completely different from the non-bloc status and Ukraine urged for the NATO membership, after deciding to follow the Western path. The strategic partnership with NATO and later membership are thought to be complementary to the implementation of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union. In the future, there are three possible scenarios of the NATO-Ukrainian relations: going back to the Ukrainian non-bloc status; intensified cooperation without the full Ukrainian NATO membership; and a clear road-map to the full Ukrainian NATO membership. The most likely option seems to be enforcing and deepening partnership between NATO and Ukraine in the form of supporting democratic reforms and transforming the military sector, which may possibly lead to drawing up a precise schedule of Ukraine’s accession to NATO. Refusing the cooperation between NATO and Ukraine is very unlikely. This development could occur only if Kiev changes its priorities. Last but not least, Ukraine’s early NATO membership is not very likely either, as it is impeded by this country’s unreadiness, NATO’s unreadiness and the Alliance’s lack of unity concerning this issue.

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