Determinanty wzrostu polskiego eksportu przemysłu przetwórczego – analiza długookresowa
Determinants of Polish manufacturing sector exports growth: Estimation using error correction model

Summary/Abstract: The aim of the paper is to identify determinants of the exports of Polish manufacturing sector, which was divided into 13 subsectors according to NACE 1.1. The analysis uses panel ECM estimation and covers the period 1995 – 2011. The study is carried out both for manufacturing sector and individual subsectors. Authors examine how domestic demand, foreign demand, relative unit labour costs, openness of subsectors, R&D expenditures, and labour productivity affect the exports. The results confi rm the positive and signifi cant influence of foreign demand, labour productivity, and trade openness on exports. The analysis also shows that the growth of exports can be promoted both by the growth of unit 470Magdalena Olczyk, Aleksandra Kordalska labour costs and decrease of domestic demand. The infl uence of above-mentioned factors is stronger in the long-run than in the short-run. Moreover, the economy is found to be able to adjust to the equilibrium after a shock. The results for individual sectors show that the exports growth is determined by three key indicators: labour productivity, foreign demand and trade openness. Falling domestic demand and rising relative labour costs also affect, though to a much lesser extent, the increase of manufacturing exports in the majority of subsections.

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