Manoeuvring on Three Levels. The Impact of Public Opinion and Media Framing on German Foreign Policy During the Crisis in Ukraine
Manoeuvring on Three Levels. The Impact of Public Opinion and Media Framing on German Foreign Policy During the Crisis in Ukraine

Summary/Abstract: German foreign policy during the Ukrainian crisis is best explained as a three level game between a divided public opinion, a hawkish US government and the EU, during which the government of Angela Merkel did its best to avoid sanctions against Russia, because of the anticipated backlash for Germany's economic ties with Russia and for an acquiescent and war-fearing public. During the crisis, several critical moments can be identified, during which public opinion, media coverage and foreign policy changed their mutual relation. First, during the Euromaidan media coverage, policy and public opinion overlapped. This changed dramatically during Russia's invasion and annexation of Crimea, when public opinion started to deviate from the media mainstream and Germany's foreign policy. After the downing of the MH17 flight in July 2014, all three started to converge again. However, whereas most Germans agree with the basic lines of Angela Merkel's policy toward Russia and Ukraine, a large minority regards media coverage as biased and anti-Russian and does not support incremental sectorial sanctions against Russia. Based on an adapted three-level model, the article finds that shifts in German foreign policy during the Ukrainian crisis were triggered on the domestic level by shifts in public rather than popular opinion when external pressure was low or external influences counterbalanced each other.

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