Theoretical Aspects of Modelling the Change in the Educational Structure of the Economically Active Population
Theoretical Aspects of Modelling the Change in the Educational Structure of the Economically Active Population

Summary/Abstract: This study is an effort to set up a causal model of relations between the educational structure (ES) of the economically active population (EAP) and the major determinants of its evolution. It sets out the results obtained in the process of identification and analysis of factors for changing EAP educational level over the transition period to market economy. The notion of “educational structure” was used as a measure of the population’s educational level. The study includes the most significant determinants having impact on formation and momentary state of EAP ES over the transition period.It is also a summary of the results of the review of the specialised economic and demographic studies on the issue of modelling the relations between EAP ES and the major determinants of its evolution. In addition, the main categories were discussed of macroeconomic models where population’s educational level is present as a separate element and could be used to identify the relations between EAP ES and major determinants of its evolution at macroeconomic level. A review was made of the published research works where the subject-matter of study were EAP ES partial dependencies (or sub-groups thereof) from a specific determinant and the models of such dependencies. Two causal models describing the process of formation and the cross-sectional state of EAP ES in Bulgaria over the reference period were propounded.

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