Прогнозни изменения в структурата на икономически активното население по образователно равнище в България до 2021 г.
Projected Changes in the Structure of Economically Active Population according to the Education Level in Bulgaria to 2021

Summary/Abstract: Under the conditions of long-term and significant reduction of the economically active population in Bulgaria, the dynamics of the educational structure has been becoming more and more significant. The major results of the forecast of development of the economically active population according to the educational level in Bulgaria to 2021 are presented in the article. Since there is no average term demographic forecast to 2021 or an official long-term demographic forecast the demographic scenario of the National Statistical Institute for Bulgaria for the period to 2060 (the realistic variant) has been used to develop the forecast. Moreover, no forecast on the changes in population according to the education level is published for the period considered. The economic activity rates have been projected for four categories of education: high educated, those who graduated from vocational or secondary schools, low educated or functionally uneducated. The hypotheses were built on the basis of analytical results and conclusions for the period 1985­2012 and more special attention was paid to the last eight years of the reference period, namely the period 2005­2012. The reference information on the economically active population by sex, age and education category was calculated according to data of NSI publications on the censuses conducted in the country in 1985, 1992, 2001 and 2011, as well as annual data of the “Employment and unemployment“ Labour Force Survey for the period 2001­2012.

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