ОЦЕНКА НА EФЕКТИТЕ ОТ НАЦИОНАЛНИТЕ ГРАНИЦИ ВЪРХУ ТЪРГОВИЯТА МЕЖДУ БЪЛГАРИЯ И ЕС ПРИЛОЖЕНИЕ НА ЕМПИРИЧНИЯ ГРАВИТАЦИОНЕН МОДЕЛ НА МЕЖДУНАРОДНАТА ТЪРГОВИЯ
ESTIMATING BULGARIA’S TRADE BORDERS WITH THE EU AN APPLICATION OF THE EMPIRICAL GRAVITY MODEL OF TRADE

Summary/Abstract: We use the empirical gravity model of international trade toevaluate the borders in manufacturing trade between Bulgaria and the EuropeanUnion (BG-EU). Our results suggest that in 2006 the BG-EU border was quitelarge and not statistically different from the average border in our sample of 69countries. As expected, our estimates confirm that the trade border betweenBulgaria and the EU members was very large, and much larger than the averagesample border, before the collapse of communism. The border fell sharply in theearly to mid-90s, but it followed the average sample trend since then. We alsodocument weak asymmetries in the BG-EU border in favor of EU exports toBulgaria. Our results point to a series of extensions and further analysis.

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