Синхроницаця на бизнес циклите на България спрямо страните от Еврозоната
The synchronization of Bulgaria’s business cycles in comparison with the Eurozone countries

Summary/Abstract: This study examines the level of economic convergence in the EU and in particular - within the Eurozone. The main purpose of this paper is to assess the degree of synchronization between the fluctuation of business cycles in Bulgaria and separate countries within the Eurozone. The research is based on data for the period 1995 - 2009, divided into two sub-periods: 1995 - 2001 and 2002 - 2009. Business cycles are identified by two alternative statistical methods – the filter of Baxter-King and the filter of Hodzhrik-Prescott. The empirical results reveal that during the period 1995 - 2001 Bulgaria did not meet the requirements for an optimal currency zone compared to any of the countries in the Eurozone, which has probably caused significant negative effects for introducing the currency board in 1997. Regarding the second sub-period, it is found that the effects of introducing the euro would have positive effects in Bulgaria because of the high degree of synchronization of business cycles with the Eurozone countries.

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