PROGNOZOWANIE SPRZEDAŻY Z ZASTOSOWANIEM ROZKŁADU GAMMA Z KOREKCJĄ ZE WZGLĘDU NA WAHANIA SEZONOWE
SALES FORECASTING BASED ON GAMMA DISTRIBUTION WITH SEASONAL ADJUSTMENTS

Summary/Abstract: In the article efficiency of forecasts obtained by means of two types of method was analysed. Forecasts were based on both median of gamma distribution and median of gamma distribution with seasonal adjustments. To evaluate forecasts’ effectiveness such ex post errors of forecasts as MSE (mean squared error) and Theil coefficient were applied. Decomposition of MSE was also introduced. According to empirical results, with respect to unbiasedness and elasticity, forecasts based on median of gamma distribution with seasonal adjustments seem to be more efficient.

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