SALES FORECASTING BASED ON GAMMA DISTRIBUTION WITH SEASONAL ADJUSTMENTS Cover Image

PROGNOZOWANIE SPRZEDAŻY Z ZASTOSOWANIEM ROZKŁADU GAMMA Z KOREKCJĄ ZE WZGLĘDU NA WAHANIA SEZONOWE
SALES FORECASTING BASED ON GAMMA DISTRIBUTION WITH SEASONAL ADJUSTMENTS

Author(s): Krzysztof Dmytrów, Mariusz Doszyń
Subject(s): Economy, Methodology and research technology, Policy, planning, forecast and speculation
Published by: Wydawnictwo Naukowe Uniwersytetu Szczecińskiego
Keywords: sales forecasting; forecasting based on gamma distribution; seasonal adjustments;

Summary/Abstract: In the article efficiency of forecasts obtained by means of two types of method was analysed. Forecasts were based on both median of gamma distribution and median of gamma distribution with seasonal adjustments. To evaluate forecasts’ effectiveness such ex post errors of forecasts as MSE (mean squared error) and Theil coefficient were applied. Decomposition of MSE was also introduced. According to empirical results, with respect to unbiasedness and elasticity, forecasts based on median of gamma distribution with seasonal adjustments seem to be more efficient.

  • Issue Year: 2014
  • Issue No: 36/2
  • Page Range: 27-39
  • Page Count: 13
  • Language: Polish
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