Šešėlinės ekonomikos masto ir jį lemiančių priežasčių tarpusavio priklausomybės tyrimas Lietuvoje
Research of interdependece between the volume of the shadow economy and its causes in Lithuania

Summary/Abstract: The existence of the shadow economy is unavoidable in a boom period in economic development and so in a time of recession. The scientific literature presents most frequently the analysis of the relation between the shadow economy and the tax system, the state regulation, the labor market properties, instruments and methods for the assessment of a level of shadow economy are described, the shadow economy determining causes are presented and classified, but poor is a focus of analysis on the research of interdependence between volume of shadow economy it causes. In this paper are structured five group of causes that determine the formation of the shadow economy. The first group is linked to the tax system, the second - to the labor market regulatory policy and administrative burdens, the third - to a quality of state activity and institutions, and the fourth – to the public properties, the fifth - the country's macroeconomic situation. It’s important to note that the latter two groups of factors are distinguished only conditionally and are often equated with the first three groups of factors. The statistical interdependence measurement units can be adapted not for all groups, so only these economic causes of the shadow economy are chosen, which can be statistically measured. There are disposable income per capita, inflation, unemployment, the relative tax burden, corruption perception index, volume indicators of cash in circulation. In this research are used the shadow economy-wide estimates of Lithuania by Schneider (2010) and the Lithuanian Free Market Institute, in order to assess their reliability and dependence on major shadow economy-wide factors. Lithuanian Free Market Institute calculates the shadow economy on expert survey method, while Schneider (2010) calculated shadow economy on the basis of various statistics. Comparative data and correlation analysis is performed in order to identify mutual dependence between the causes of the shadow economy and the change in its volume in Lithuania. It was found that the strongest linear relationship exists between the volume of the shadow economy and the following variables: GDP per capita, the difference between net and gross wages, disposable income, unemployment level, labor supply and relative tax burden. In the sense of monotony exists a strong correlation between shadow economy and corruption perception index. Analytical results confirmed that the greatest impact on the shadow economy growth has ordinary income and wealth levels decline. The indicator, which reflects the strongest growth of the shadow economy is cash in circulation and GDP. Based on the assumption that the cash turnover is sufficiently tangible and precise quantitative indicator and on the fact that until now from Schneider and LFMI applied methods to determine the volume of shadow economy in Lithuania of Schneider and LFMI obtained different volumes of the shadow economy, we recommend to evaluate the shadow economy Lithuania on other methods, which one of them would be - money demand approach.

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