Sila nestálosti: volatilita voličov na Slovensku vo voľbách 2016
Strength of instability: volatility of voters in Slovak election in the year 2016

Summary/Abstract: Electoral behavior in Slovakia is characterized by high instability. The study identifies the level of aggregated and individual volatility from a historical perspective, focusing specifically on the 2016 general election. Based on exit - poll data, it argue s that the traditional mainstream parties (KDH, SDKU, which failed to surpass the 5% threshold, and also Smer - SD) have lost many of their loyal core voters. The beneficiaries of voter mobility were the new anti - system parties – above all, We Are A Family a nd the extreme - right People’s Party Our Slovakia (ĽSNS). The paper identifies a specific segment of the electorate – voters who abstained in 2012 but were mobilized for the more recent election. It argues that as the turnouts were about the same in 2012 an d 2016, other segments of voters were mobilized in the 2016 election. The fact that a large proportion of these voters decided for the parties We Are A Family and ĽSNS means that they were effectively addressed by a protest, anti - establishment alternative. Based on exit - poll data, the study argues that the level of abstention in the 2012 general election (excluding first - time voters) was the strongest predictor of voter preference for these two parties. Moreover, the extreme - right ĽSNS has been very success ful in attracting first - time voters.

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