Zmienność i transmisja cen w łańcuchu marketingowym mleka w Polsce
Price Variability and Transmission in the Milk Marketing Chain in Poland

Summary/Abstract: In his article, the author carried out an analysis of changes of retail prices for drinking pasteurised milk, purchase prices and price relations between retail prices of drinking pasteurised milk and other food products in Poland in 2003-2015. The adoption of the long term of analyses enabled recognition of the periods of high and low variability. In the process of analysis, there were used various methods of data analysis, including the ADF test and the ARMA model. The market for milk displayed its specificity because as one of a few was strongly administered by the European Union. Those tools led to significant growth of milk prices in the period in question. The average price of drinking pasteurised milk increased by o 63% in the years 2003-2015, i.e. from the level of 108.1 zlotys/100 kg to 176 zlotys/100 kg, while the purchase price of milk grew from 71.51 zlotys/100 kg to 137.11 zlotys/ 100 kg (or by 91.74%). Even short-term fluctuations related to the economic crises have not affected significantly the market for milk. Moreover, the growth trend in milk prices has caused that its production has become one of the most cost-effective and stable agricultural activities. However, with the end of 2014 and liquidation of production limits, the price of milk began to decline.

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