Regionális gazdasági előrejelző modell, a klímaváltozás figyelembevételével
Regional Economic Forecasting Model with Respect to the Climate Change

Summary/Abstract: This study aims to propose a methodology for the spatially disaggregated forecast of long-term economic processes in Hungary. The aim of the methodological work is to prepare long-term pro-jections for the most important economic varia-bles, and to identify linkages through which the impacts of the climate change on the economic dynamics can be incorporated in the model. Be-sides the projections of the national-level eco-nomic variables, the projections of the data will be given at a more delicate spatial resolution, too. Due to the complex nature of this task, a com-plex model is built which is disaggregated in time and in space. The basis of the forecasts is a dy-namic, stochastic, general equilibrium model of the national economy which is supplemented by a sub-model for the long-term trends. The impacts of the climate change are exemplified by a “base” and a “climate” scenario. In the next stage, the forecasts of the national-level model are regional-ly decomposed to the county level. The conclu-sions of the study emphasise that significant em-pirical and theoretical challenges arise in the eco-nomic modelling of the climate change, and im-portant methodological opportunities remain open for future research.

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