Prognozowana dynamika zysków spółek a obciążenie błędów prognoz – doświadczenia polskie
Forecasted earnings growth of companies and earnings forecast bias – Polish experience

Summary/Abstract: Corporate earnings forecasts constitute an essential element of most models of valuing stocks. However, the achievements of analysts in terms of forecast accuracy seem to be rather disappointing. Apart from low accuracy, their predictions tend also to neglect important statistical and accounting relationships of reported financial results. In this paper we examine the statistical relationship between the expected pace of earnings growth and the scope and direction of earnings forecasts errors in case of companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The investigation confirmed that analysts tend to be over-optimistic/ over-pessimistic when predicting the earnings of companies characterized by relatively fast/ slow expected growth of earnings.

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