Cykliczne efekty makroekonomiczne kursu walutowego w Polsce
Cyclical macroeconomic effects of ex- change rate in Poland.

Summary/Abstract: The article presents the analysis of the nominal and real exchange rate dynamics in Poland, with an empirical assessment of its cyclical effects upon GDP, industrial output and foreign trade. In comparison to the beginning of 1990s, Poland (and Hungary) are distinguished by a steep depreciation of the nominal effective exchange rate, especially in the period after the world financial crisis of 2008-2009, while the currencies of the Czech Republic and Slovakia have been relatively stable. Based on the Kalman filter estimates for the quarterly data of the 2000-2015 period, it is found that nominal and real depreciation of the zloty measured as deviation from the equilibrium trend does stimulate economic growth and exports (since 2004). However, nominal and real depreciations are associated with an increase in imports as well.

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