Egzemplifikacja efektu inkumbenta w wyborach bezpośrednich kierowników gminnej egzekutywy w Polsce i jego strukturalne uwarunkowania
Exemplification of the incumbent effect in direct elections of communal executive managers in Poland and its structural determinants

Summary/Abstract: The article presents structural determinants of dominance of incumbents in direct elections of rural commune heads and town mayors in Poland. One of the key determinants is the role of voters, whose level of preference for incumbents is moderated in a non-linear way by the number of commune inhabitants. The population of the commune also affects the intensity of measurable variables characterizing communes, which reciprocally moderate re-election probability. The effectiveness of incumbents’ intentional activities aimed to improve their chances for re-election is also dependent of the commune population. The analysis shows that the dominance of incumbents is the highest in most populated places, where the sophomore surge effect is reduced and the election advantage accumulates in each successive term. In the other communes, the dominance of incumbents is usually highest in the election for the second term, after which there is no upward trend any more. The general tendency occurring in each direct election for those offices has not changed since 2006; the rotation of authorities is the lowest in the most populated communes, medium in the least populated ones, and the highest in communes with the population of 20 thousand to 100 thousand.

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