SOME ASPECTS OF THE RETROSPECTIVE FORECAST AND ITS PLACE IN HISTORY – DEMOGRAPHICAL RESEARCHES IN BULGARIAN LANDS THROUGH THE RENAISSANCE Cover Image
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НЯКОИ АСПЕКТИ НА РЕТРОСПЕКТИВНАТА ПРОГНОСТИКА И МЯСТОТО Й В ИСТОРИКО-ДЕМОГРАФСКИТЕ ИЗСЛЕДВАНИЯ НА БЪЛГАРСКИТЕ ЗЕМИ ПРЕЗ ВЪЗРАЖДАНЕТО
SOME ASPECTS OF THE RETROSPECTIVE FORECAST AND ITS PLACE IN HISTORY – DEMOGRAPHICAL RESEARCHES IN BULGARIAN LANDS THROUGH THE RENAISSANCE

Author(s): Daniela Angelova, Shtelian Shterionov, Ivailo Gavazki
Subject(s): History
Published by: Институт за изследване на населението и човека - Българска академия на науките

Summary/Abstract: In the article it is proved by empirical evidence that the autocorrelation regression model is applicable for retrospective projections. Using the data from the census population count at the Bulgarian Black Sea region for the period 1880–1910, a retrospective extrapolation of the trend is made for the past period 1800–1880. The unknown parameters are calculated by the method of at least squares estimations (LSE). There are two trends determined using the census data from the two periods (18801–1910 and 1829–1880). Their comparison shows that the two trends are close to each other.

  • Issue Year: 2006
  • Issue No: 3-4
  • Page Range: 19-29
  • Page Count: 11
  • Language: Bulgarian