Megosztásból szavazat. A Facebook-kampány hatása az egyéni választókerületi képviselőjelöltek választási eredményére a 2014-es országgyűlési választásokon
From sharing to vote. The influence of Facebook campaign on the electoral results of individual candidates during the Hungarian general elections of 2014

Summary/Abstract: While there is much speculation in public and academic discourse regarding the effects of Facebook as a campaign tool on electoral success, this question has been little investigated empirically to date. A recent study attempts to bridge this gap by empirically investigating how candidates’ Facebook use during the Hungarian general election campaign of 2014 influenced their electoral results. While previous studies have mostly focused on the effects of Facebook adoption, the present work applies a performance-oriented approach: it investigates whether success in the Facebook sphere is associated with electoral success rather than the effects of Facebook use in general. It hypothesizes that the effects of a Facebook campaign arise from a two-step flow effect: it is not the direct followers who are influenced by candidates’ Facebook campaigns, but their friends who are reached by the shares of candidates’ posts. The database contains three of the most voted-for candidates owning Facebook pages from all single-member districts (N = 183). The study investigates whether the average number of shares per post posted during the last two weeks of the campaign is associated with a gain in candidates’ personal vote. To reject alternative explanations, the effects of other Facebook performance variables, such as average number of likes and comments are also examined.

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