Допринос старења опадању стопе активности: квантификација декомпозитним методом
Contribution of the Aging to the Dicrease in the Rate of Economic Activity: Quantification with the Decomposition Method

Summary/Abstract: To explain the causes of the recent decrease in economic activity in Serbia and ascertain the extent to which population aging has contributed to this phenomenon, this paper uses the decomposition method to quantify two different kinds of effects: composite and direct. Direct effects or rate effects occur due to changes in the population’s behaviour, typically brought on by a changed cultural or institutional context or changes in the state of the labour market. Composite effects represent purely demographic effects, arising due to age re-composition of the population. This paper uses census data and the Prithwis Das Gupta decomposition method – widely accepted as best practice for this type of research. The results have shown that behavioural factors were twice as important as demographic factors in explaining the decrease in the rate of economic activity seen in the most recent inter-censal period.

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