Факторно влияние на цените на жилищата в България: кросспектрален анализ
Factoral Impact of House Prices in Bulgaria: Cross-Spectral Analysis

Summary/Abstract: The subject of research in this publication is the market house prices. They represent the real selling prices of dwellings (flats) free of charges, commissions, lawyers' fees and property transfer costs, whereas the house price index assesses the overall relative change in house prices in the current quarter compared to the previous one. The aim of this study is to assess the direction and intensity of the dependence between house prices and selected macro indicators such as the average gross monthly salary, monetary supply and the size of mortgage loans. The study period is from 2000 to 2018. The methodology is based on an analysis of the impact of the macro indicators on house price changes and on cross-spectral analysis to measure the degree of correspondence between their periodic components. The survey results show a statistically significant correlation between house prices and the macro indicators of money supply and mortgage loans. There is a close correlation between the periodic components of market house prices and the macro indicators. Matching wavelengths at which the phase spectrum measuring the degree of their correlation receives relatively low values is observed to be at a length of nine years.

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