ŠTO JE PRETHODILO NEUSPJEHU HDZ-a NA IZBORIMA 2000.: REZULTATI ISTRAŽIVANJA JAVNOGA MNIJENJA U RAZDOBLJU OD 1991. DO 1999. GODINE
WHAT PRECEDED HDZ'S FAILURE AT THE 2000 ELECTIONS: RESULTS OF PUBLIC OPINION POLLS FROM 1991 TO 1999

Summary/Abstract: ln this work the author presents the main determinants of the public's relationship towards the Croatian Democratic Union in the period from 1991 to 1999 registered in a longitudinal research of the Institute of Social Sciences Ivo Pilar in Zagreb. Based on its findings, some of the possible reasons why the party had lost the support of the voting majority at the 2000 elections for the House of Counties have been indicated. The results of the analysis conducted suggest that the main reasons are a significantly weakened voting position of the HDZ, with regard to the previous elections: l) the decrease of fundamental support to the party, as a consequence of the moral credibility and unfulfilled expectations of the public concerning the country's economic prosperity and growth of living standard; 2) the lack of a "big" social event wich would, except for its thrue importance for Croatia and its population, be also of great national and symbolic significance. Additional reasons are also possible (which probably had a minor influence on the election results), such as a certain dwindling of the electorate after the death of Tuđman, as well as a new way of articulating political alternative, as a result of election coalitioning of the most important oppositional parties at the time.

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