Produkcja i ceny w rolnym cyklu koniunkturalnym w Polsce
Production and Prices in the Agricultural Business Cycle in Poland

Summary/Abstract: The business cycle in agriculture is an important and complex issue as, apartfrom economic factors, it is influenced by natural changes and biological conditions. Thestudy is empirical. Its main purpose is to identify the recurring features of the agriculturalbusiness cycle that relate to changes in production and prices. Based on the final productionof agriculture, it was found that in the years 2001– 2015 the length of the full cycle was from4 to 6 years. The length of the growth phase is from 2 to 4 years, and the downward oneis 1 to 2 years. The amplitude of all cycles based on annual data was close to zero. In eachgrowth phase there was a cumulative increase in global and final agricultural production.The increases in the better economic phase were much larger than the decreases in a worseperiod. The only recurring feature of changes in gross value added was its relative increasein the upward phase with respect to total changes in the declining phase. Average annualand cumulative data indicate that the price growth in the better economic phase wasalways greater than the dynamics in the downturn. In each growth phase, prices increasedin cumulative terms, while in the declining phase they were usually slightly reduced. Theprices of gross agricultural production were more dynamic and volatile in annual termsthan its real values. However, the cumulative dynamics of prices and production valuesin particular phases of the agricultural cycle behaved very similarly. The average price gapin all the growth phases and the greater number of inheritance phases were unfavourablefor farmers.

• Details
• Contents