Weryfikacja metodyki wyboru optymalnego modelu prognozy rozwoju demograficznego dla potrzeb zarządzania przestrzenią planistyczną
Verification of method of choosing optimal forecast model of demographic development for the purposes of space management

Summary/Abstract: The object of a future population number diagnosis is to make decisions securing socio-being conditions and human needs. A forecast of demographic progress assisting a geo-information system, that allows relating this information to Earth’s surface, is about forecasting intensity of changes of many attributes and socio-economic processes. Taking many attributes into account requires time and money consuming formulation of multi-state models, and therefore a process of annual updates is not carried. The most often used method for model construction is a component method (factor method), which is about forecasting fertility and mortality changes, as well as changes in migration movements. On the grounds of results of carried out literature studies We suggest to complement a model of demographic forecast in statistic formulas which take into account factors of uncertainty (random factors) by implementation of games theory in the process of estimation of future directions of changes of basic demographic processes using computer simulator for that purpose. This tool will reduce costs and decrease time needed to possess knowledge on demography of population of particular region, and will improve process of data updating and verification in following years, as well as will empower spatial information systems helping to carry on with process of rational spatial planning. The thesis uses own carried forecast of demographic development of the city of Olsztyn until 2025, and it verifies construction of the model by comparing simulated by a simulator number of population, and the 1997 GUS forecast on number of Olsztyn’s population for years 1997-–2006. An article covers issues relating to construction of statistical model using random factor.

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