Prediction of Hydropower Ratio from Total Energy Generation in Romania
Prediction of Hydropower Ratio from Total Energy Generation in Romania
Author(s): Angela Neagoe, Eliza-Isabela Tică, Bogdan Popa, Florica PopaSubject(s): Business Economy / Management
Published by: UIKTEN - Association for Information Communication Technology Education and Science
Keywords: statistical analysis; time series; AR2 model; hydropower generation; confidence interval;
Summary/Abstract: In a previous paper, it was made a statistical analysis for hydropower ratio from total energy production in Romania over the period 2006 – 2016 for monthly values, and the main characteristics for this set of observations were determined. Based on monthly recorded data and on mathematical model, this paper presents a method for the prediction of this random variable using the second order autoregressive (AR2) model. The reconstructed data are compared with recorded values for the last three years of the analyzed time series and, for the next two years, a forecast was made, whose results are compared with real values published in the annual reports of Hidroelectrica, for 2017, and the Transelectrica Website, for 2018.
Journal: TEM Journal
- Issue Year: 9/2020
- Issue No: 1
- Page Range: 402-406
- Page Count: 5
- Language: English
