CAN FORECASTING AMELIORATE THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF HYBRID THREATS?
CAN FORECASTING AMELIORATE THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF HYBRID THREATS?

Summary/Abstract: Understanding “hybrid threats” is made exceedingly difficult by both its elusive characteristics and the lack of international consensus. The current international normative milieu is left paralyzed in the face of defining and ameliorating the negative effects of hybrid threats. Given that response options are dictated by foreseeability, there is a stringent necessity to incorporate risk analysis and forecasting methodologies in the very conceptual fabric of our strategic planning process directed at countering and ameliorating the negative impact of hybrid threats. The research has a two-tiered approach: one purely theoretical, which focuses on the current international framework applicable to the concept of “hybrid threats”, on a legal, political and military level, and a second one, which aims to analyse and build towards a broadening of our current understanding of countering and ameliorating hybrid threats by focusing beyond the limits of current conceptual frameworks and incorporating forecasting and risk analysis as means to compensate international normative bias.

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