PETROL FİYATLARINDAKİ OYNAKLIĞIN İKTİSADİ BÜYÜME VE ENFLASYON ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: GCC ÜLKELERİ ÖRNEĞİ
THE EFFECT OF THE OIL PRICES VOLATILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INFLATION: THE CASE OF GCC COUNTRIES

Summary/Abstract: The empirical investigation of the impact of oil price volatility on macroeconomic variables in oil-dependent countries can be used as a data source for determining production structure and sectoral transformation policies in these countries. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of volatility in oil prices in Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC[R1][hç2]) countries (Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates) on economic growth and inflation by using monthly data for 2007-2018 period. Real industrial production index was used to represent economic growth, and inflation rates were calculated by taking into account the monthly change in the Consumer Price Index. SVAR model was preferred for analysis. Based on our test results, it was found that volatility in oil prices affects economic growth negatively and inflation rate positively in most GCC countries. As a policy implication, it can be suggested that in order to reduce the negative impact of volatility in oil prices on macroeconomic indicators, sectors other than oil should be supported.

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