COVID 19 – произход, епидемиологичен анализ и прогноза
COVID 19 -origin, epidemiological analysis and forecast

Summary/Abstract: Knowledge of the laws of epidemiological science allows for effective anti-epidemic measures. In this article, we intend to carry out an epidemiological analysis hypothesizing the origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and suggest a possible epidemiological prognosis. Methods: Theoretical and epidemiological, analytical and prognostic methods were used. An epidemiological hypothesis for the origin and features of the COVID epidemic process has been proposed, according to which the SARS-CoV-2 virus originates from the zoonotic cycle (bats, pingolins and other wild animals) and overcomes the species barrier, establishing lasting transmission among people. Social caving contributes to the serious public health consequences. Practice in the control of the epidemic process is based on the impact on the three necessary conditions for the epidemic process sources of infection, transmission mechanism and susceptible population. For infections with an aerogenic transmission mechanism, they include reduced communication, ventilation, distance keeping, hand and surface disinfection, and personal hygiene. An epidemiological evaluation of the actions of the anti-epidemic system has been carried out. The Bulgarian Epidemiology School carries out purposeful, substantiated anti-epidemic actions. The use of specific and sensitive test systems will allow the active detection of infected people and their timely isolation. The management of the epidemic process in COVID 19 is carried out with the active behavior of the population. The epidemiological prognosis of COVID 19 is difficult, but the fight against "social caving", the actual adherence to the anti-epidemic regime for social distance, together with the exhaustion of the epidemic potential of COVID 19 will put an end to the epidemic process. Economic, transport and other activities need to be restructured at a possible low epidemic risk. The epidemiological experience gained over the centuries requires an effective epidemiological control system based on research, analysis and actions.

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