Starzenie się ludności a redystrybucja dochodów
Population ageing and income redistribution

Summary/Abstract: The aim of the paper is to identify the macroeconomic conditions which determined the dynamics of remuneration and pension growth in Poland in 2010–2017, along with presenting the study forecast until 2025. The research was based on the data from the national accounts, population statistics, statistics of retirement benefits and Statistics Poland’s demographic forecast for 2008–2035. The ageing of a population aggravates the problem of fair distribution of the current stream of goods and services produced in the economic process. Distribution options are determined by the relations between the ratio of employed persons to pensioners and the volume of national income. The resulting dependencies can be described using the author’s original Intergenerational Income Transfer Model (IITM).The observation of tendencies in Poland demonstrated that the pace of GDP growth between 2010–2017 ensured the macroeconomic balance essential in the process of shaping remunerations and pensions – GDP was growing faster than remunerations and pensions. This indicates the necessity of maintaining a high rate of GDP growth and productivity, at around 3.6% a year, which means that GDP will need to have grown by over 40% by 2025 compared to 2015.With the help of the IITM, it was also possible to identify the main difficulty facing the system of public intergenerational transfers, which, in a state perceived as a common good, should be understood as pensioners’ liabilities whose repayment guarantees a decent standard of living for the elderly.

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