COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS OF EXPORTS, IMPORTS AND REAL GDP: CASE OF NORTH MACEDONIA
COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS OF EXPORTS, IMPORTS AND REAL GDP: CASE OF NORTH MACEDONIA

Summary/Abstract: Exports and imports of a given country are a part of its Gross Domestic Product and these economic notions are a very important indicator when we evaluate the economic growth and do economic forecast of a particular country. From a lot of growth theories, it is very hard to choose one theory in order to present the whole economic situation of a given country. North Macedonia, a country with a lot of socio-economic problems, some of them inherited from the pre-transition era, has had economic growth based on consumption growth and growth of imports. The cointegration analysis between exports, imports and the real GDP of North Macedonia is done to see the long-term relationship among the pre mentioned variables. To see the short-term response of the equilibrium of these series, the VECM model is presented and other relevant tests are done to see the validity of the model. In the case of North Macedonia there is no long-term equilibrium between the variables so we have presented the VAR model instead

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