Türkiye’de Üçüz Açık Hipotezinin Geçerliliği
The Validity of Triplet Deficit in Turkey

Summary/Abstract: With globalization, international capital acts by considering the sensitivity of economies against external and internal shocks, in other words, their fragility among open economies. Located between the fragile economies, it is important to evaluate the scope of external financial vulnerability and fragility of Turkey's economy. External fragility is associated with the current account deficit, while fiscal fragility is associated with the budget deficit and savings deficit. The relationship between these parameters is the subject of the triplet deficit hypothesis. According to this hypothesis, savings and budget deficits are expected to have a positive effect on the current account deficit. In this context, this study aimed to test the validity of triplet deficit hypothesis in Turkey. Markov regime change model has been adopted as the econometric method. According to the method, it was determined that the savings deficit affected the current account deficit positively during the periods of contraction and expansion, while the budget deficit affected the current account deficit negatively only during the expansion period. According to these results, it was determined that the triplets deficit hypothesis is invalid in Turkey's economy between the quarter period of 2006: 1-2020: 3.

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