Декомпозиране на намалението в равнището на завършена кохортна раждаемост по паритетни компоненти на промяната в България
Decomposition of the Reduction in the Level of Completed Cohort Fertility Rate into Parity Components of Change in Bulgaria

Summary/Abstract: The article examines the cohort fertility of Bulgarian women born in the period 1930-1970 based on parity progression ratios, obtained according to the methodology proposed by Zeman. The applied method decomposes the occurred reductions in the levels of the completed cohort fertility rate into components which are due to the occurred changes in the cohort birth rates of different parity. The necessary information base for the application of the method is provided by the HFD database and supplemented with reconstructed by the author data on the cohort birth rates of Bulgarian women based on the available data from current statistics and the NSI population censuses. The results of the analysis give reasons for determining that the very low levels reached of the value of completed cohort fertility rates in Bulgaria are mainly due to the contraction in the size of the births of second rank and much less to the shrinkage of the first rank births.

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