Analizy i prognozy polskiego rynku pracy. Przekrój grup zawodowych
Analyses and forecasts of polish labour market. Cross-section of occupations groups

Author(s): Artur Gajdos, Karolina Lewandowska-Gwarda
Subject(s): Politics / Political Sciences, Social Sciences, Economy, Business Economy / Management, Labor relations, Economic development
Published by: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
Keywords: labour market; number of employees; occupations groups; forecasts
Summary/Abstract: Analyses and forecasts of changes in the occupational structure of employees are an extremely important element of the labour market research. They provide information about the future demand of work in specific occupations, which enables the intensification of adjustment processes of the labour market in the changing socio-economic reality. Appropriate qualification and professional matching of jobseekers and job vacancies leads to a more effective use of production factors and, consequently, to an increase in their productivity. It is also a determinant of wage growth, while satisfying the professional aspirations of working people. In the macroeconomic perspective, it affects economic development, the level of unemployment and the state of the government budget. This monograph presents the theoretical basis for forecasting changes of the occupational structure in the labour market, as well as the analysis and forecasts of the number of employees in the cross-section of major, sub-major and minor occupations groups in Poland. Historical data analysis covered the period 1995-2018, apart from that in the last chapter it was extended by 2019 and 2020. The forecasts results were presented in the short horizon until 2025 and in the long horizon, in five-year intervals from 2025 to 2050. An attempt was also made to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the occupational structure in Poland. The presented results made it possible to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the expected transformations in the labour market in Poland. The high forecast dynamics of the increase in the demand for specialists and the decrease in demand for farmers indicates the continuation of the process of transition of the Polish economy towards the knowledge-based economy in the coming years.

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